The AstroStat Slog

Earlier this year, Peter Edmonds showed me a press release that the Chandra folks were, at the time, considering putting out describing the possible identification of a Type Ia Supernova progenitor. What appeared to be an accreting white dwarf binary system could be discerned in 4-year old observations, coincident with the location of a supernova that went off in November 2007 (SN2007on). An amazing discovery, but there is a hitch.

And it is a statistical hitch, and involves two otherwise highly reliable and oft used methods giving contradictory answers at nearly the same significance level! Does this mean that the chances are actually 50-50? Really, we need a bona fide statistician to take a look and point out the errors of our ways.. Continue reading ‘Did they, or didn’t they?’ »

Astrometry.net, a cool website I heard from Harvard Astronomy Professor Doug Finkbeiner’s class (Principles of Astronomical Measurements), does a complex job of matching your images of unknown locations or coordinates to sources in catalogs. By providing your images in various formats, they provide astrometric calibration meta-data and lists of known objects falling inside the field of view. Continue reading ‘Astrometry.net’ »

This is a quite long paper that I separated from [Arvix] 4th week, Feb. 2008:
      [astro-ph:0802.3916] P. Carvalho, G. Rocha, & M.P.Hobso
      A fast Bayesian approach to discrete object detection in astronomical datasets - PowellSnakes I
As the title suggests, it describes Bayesian source detection and provides me a chance to learn the foundation of source detection in astronomy. Continue reading ‘[ArXiv] A fast Bayesian object detection’ »

Avalanches are a common process, occuring anywhere that a system can store stress temporarily without “snapping”. It can happen on sand dunes and solar flares as easily as on the snow bound Alps.

Melatos, Peralta, & Wyithe (arXiv:0710.1021) have a nice summary of avalanche processes in the context of pulsar glitches. Their primary purpose is to show that the glitches are indeed consistent with an avalanche, and along the way they give a highly readable description of what an avalanche is and what it entails. Briefly, avalanches result in event parameters that are distributed in scale invariant fashion (read: power laws) with exponential waiting time distributions (i.e., Poisson).

Hence the title of this post: the “Avalanche distribution” (indulge me! I’m using stats notation to bury complications!) can be thought to have two parameters, both describing the indices of power-law distributions that control the event sizes, a, and the event durations, b, and where the event separations are distributed as an exponential decay. Is there a canned statistical distribution that describes all this already? (In our work modeling stellar flares, we assumed that b=0 and found that a>2 a<-2, which has all sorts of nice consequences for coronal heating processes.)

From arxiv/astro-ph:0708.4274v1
Comparison of decision tree methods for finding active objects by Y. Zhao and Y. Zhang

The authors (astronomers) introduced and summarized various decision three methods (REPTree, Random Tree, Decision Stump, Random Forest, J48, NBTree, and AdTree) to the astronomical community.
Continue reading ‘[ArXiv] Decision Tree, Aug. 31, 2007’ »

From arxiv/astro-ph:0705.3856
Gamma-ray albedo of the moon by Moskalenko and Porter

The title sounds very interesting although the significance of albedo spectra is not recognized by a statistician. This study was performed to utilize GLAST and PAMELA via Monte Carlo simulations (the toolkit for MC was GEANT 8.2) with EGRET data.

From arxiv/astro-ph:0708.1510v1
Connecting GRBs and galaxies: the probability of chance coincidence by Cobb and Bailyn

Without an optical afterglow, a galaxy within the 2 arc second error region of a GRB x-ray afterglow is identified as a host galaxy; however confusion can rise due to the facts that 1. the edge of a galaxy is diffused, 2. multiple sources could exist within 2 arc second error region, 3.the distance between the galaxy and the x-ray afterglow is measured by projection, and 4. lensing causes increase of brightness and position shifts. In this paper, the authors “investigated the fields of 72 GRBs in order to examine the general issue of associations between GRBs and host galaxies.”
Continue reading ‘[ArXiv] GRB host galaxies, Aug. 10, 2007’ »

From arxiv/astro-ph:0705.4020v2
Statistical Evidence for Three classes of Gamma-ray Bursts by T. Chattopadhyay et. al.

In general, gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are classified into two groups: long (>2 sec) and short (<2 sec) duration bursts. Nonetheless, there have been some studies including arxiv/astro-ph:0705.4020v2 that statistically proved the optimal existence of 3 clusters. The pioneer work of GRB clusterings was based on hierarchical clustering methods by Mukerjee et. al.(Three Types of Gamma-Ray Bursts)
Continue reading ‘[ArXiv] Three Classes of GRBs, July 21, 2007’ »

From arxiv/astro-ph:0707.2064v1
Star Formation via the Little Guy: A Bayesian Study of Ultracool Dwarf Imaging Surveys for Companions by P. R. Allen.

I rather skip all technical details on ultracool dwarfs and binary stars, reviews on star formation studies, like initial mass function (IMF), astronomical survey studies, which Allen gave a fair explanation in arxiv/astro-ph:0707.2064v1 but want to emphasize that based on simple Bayes’ rule and careful set-ups for likelihoods and priors according to data (ultracool dwarfs), quite informative conclusions were drawn:
Continue reading ‘[ArXiv] Bayesian Star Formation Study, July 13, 2007’ »

From arxiv/astro-ph:0707.1900v1
The complete catalogue of gamma-ray bursts observed by the Wide Field Cameras on board BeppoSAX by Vetere, et.al.

This paper intend to publicize the largest data set of Gamma Ray Burst (GRB) X-ray afterglows (right curves after the event), which is available from http://www.asdc.asi.it. It is claimed to be a complete on-line catalog of GRB observed by two wide-Field Cameras on board BeppoSAX (Click for its Wiki) in the period of 1996-2002. It is comprised with 77 bursts and 56 GRBs with Xray light curves, covering the energy range 40-700keV. A brief introduction to the instrument, data reduction, and catalog description is given.

From arxiv/astro-ph: 0707.1611 Probabilistic Cross-Identification of Astronomical Sources by Budavari and Szalay

As multi-wave length studies become more popular, various source matching methodologies have been discussed. One of such methods particularly focused on Bayesian idea was introduced by Budavari and Szalay with a demand for symmetric algorithms in a unified framework.
Continue reading ‘[ArXiv] Matching Sources, July 11, 2007’ »